Declining Conditions for Wheat

The USDA report shows that wheat conditions in the U.S. have declined further and as a result, wheat futures staged a rally overnight. The dry conditions in the Northern U.S. led the USDA to further cut spring wheat ratings by 2% on the week. As of Sunday, only 9% of 2021 spring wheat crops in the U.S. were rated in good to excellent condition.

​Spring wheat harvest is slated for an earlier start this year with 97% of the crop already headed out – if it was able to reach that stage amid the ongoing heat stress. As of July 25, 3% of the crop had been harvested with the majority of combining activity centering in Washington (12% complete) and South Dakota (21% complete).

The dry weather has allowed combining rates for winter wheat crops to accelerate as harvest activity moves further north. The USDA estimates 84% of U.S. winter wheat acres were harvested as of Sunday, up 11% from the week prior thanks to limited rainfall and 3% ahead of the five-year average.

Soft red winter wheat yields and protein are largely in line with 2020 results as the last fields in Northern Michigan are harvested. Hard red winter wheat yields have been more variable across the Plains, but early estimates suggest protein contents could rise above five-year averages thanks to dry growing conditions.

Soft white winter wheat harvest in the Pacific Northwest ramped up over the past week, with nearly 20% of the crop out of the field as of late last week. But severe drought will likely reduce the number of acres harvested this year and early protein estimates point to variable results for millers.

According to NOAA's short-range forecast, there is an end in sight for the recent heatwave. Hot and dry weather will likely dominate the forecast early this week but temperatures are expected to moderate across the Corn Belt by Thursday. The cooldown is good news for crops.