Crop Conditions and Drought

​Soybeans plunged in overnight trading following a forecast from the National Weather Service for rainfall in parts of the Midwest this week, particularly in Iowa and Illinois, the biggest producers of beans and corn. Rain in the next two weeks will boost moisture in the Midwest but dry weather will continue in the Northern Plains.​

The crops across the Northern Plains could really use some rain to ease the drought stress. However, there is limited scope for rain over the next 10 days and crop stress is expected into the 16 to 30 day outlook.

Crop Conditions

According to the USDA report, about 60% of the U.S. soybean crop was rated good or excellent, down from 62% a week earlier and 5% of the crop was blooming which is on par with the prior five-year average. About 65% of the U.S. corn crop was rated excellent at the start of the week, down from 68% the previous week.

The spring wheat crop saw a sharp decline in crop conditions with only 27% rated good or excellent, down from 37% a week earlier. The drought conditions are really taking their toll on the spring wheat, particularly in North Dakota, the biggest producer of the variety, with about 18% seeing exceptional drought, the worst-possible rating, according to data from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Meanwhile, winter wheat was 17% harvested as of Sunday, up from 4% the previous week but well behind the prior five-year average of 26%. About 49% of the crop was rated good or excellent, up from 48% a week earlier.

Export Inspections

The USDA reports showed inspections for corn fell week-to-week while bean and wheat einspections increased. Corn inspections in the seven days that ended on June 17 totaled 1.48 million metric tons, down from 1.61 million tons the previous week. Soybean inspections were reported at 175,359 metric tons, up from 129,539 tons the prior week, government data show. That’s down from the 255,810 tons assessed during the same week in 2020. Wheat inspections totaled 548,578 metric tons last week which was up from the previous week at 499,774 tons, but down from the 686,036 tons examined during the same week last year.

Since the start of the marketing year on the 1st of September, the government has inspected 55.5 million metric tons of corn for overseas delivery, up from 32.1 million tons during the same time frame last year. Soybean assessments since the beginning of September are now at 57 million metric tons, up from 36.5 million during the same period a year earlier. Wheat assessments from the start of the grain’s marketing year on June 1 now stand at 1.24 million metric tons, down from 1.5 million tons at this point in 2020.

Drought Conditions

Mid-June brought scorching heat to portions of the Northern Plains and very dry conditions. As a result, drought has expanded across some key areas of the Corn Belt. As of June 15, the U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that drought has deepened from the eastern Dakotas eastward across Iowa and Wisconsin and in southern Michigan.

In Iowa, 95% of the state is now in abnormally dry to drought status. According to data from WeatherTrends360, mid-June 2021 was the fifth hottest and fourth driest in 30-plus years for Iowa. Hot weather helped to zap soil moisture and, of course, dry weather exacerbated drought conditions. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 41% of the U.S. corn crop is located in at least a moderate drought area.

The good news is that the hot weather subsides in the week-ending June 24 across the northern Corn Belt, which will slow down evapotranspiration. However, there is little hope for substantial rainfall which is needed to even put a dent in drought conditions. WeatherTrends360 forecasts that through the week-ending June 24, 2021, precipitation will continue to run below normal across much of the northern Corn Belt, while the southern Corn Belt could see some wetter-than-normal conditions. Unfortunately, many of the areas that need the rain will miss remain dry. Meanwhile, conditions in the southern Corn Belt remain much more favorable for crop progress with few drought concerns.

As we progress further into the growing season, concerns over the deepening drought in the northern Corn Belt will increase. Once corn enters the critical reproduction phase, the effects of the drought will really start to take a toll on yields. Unfortunately, WeatherTrends360 does not anticipate any long-term relief in terms of drought for the northern Corn Belt.